Key takeaways
- Start from what actually sold during the same period last year, product by product, not from a general feeling that it will be busy.
- Order early for the products that spike, raise their reorder points before the rush, and lower them again straight after.
- Plan the exit as carefully as the entry. Seasonal stock left over afterwards is cash stuck on a shelf for a year.
Why busy seasons go wrong
Every shop has times of year when sales jump: holidays, the weeks before school starts, hot spells, local festivals, paydays at month end. These periods can make your year. They can also go wrong in two opposite ways.
Order too little and you run out of exactly what customers came in for, on the days they had money to spend. Order too much and you spend the quiet months after the rush staring at boxes of tinsel, school bags or fans. Both come from the same cause: guessing instead of planning.
Step 1: Look at last year
Your best forecast for this season is the same season last year. Pull up sales for the same weeks and list what sold, product by product.
- Which products sold far more than usual? These are your seasonal spikes.
- When did the spike start and end? It often starts earlier than you remember.
- What ran out, and when? Every stock-out is a lost sale you can plan for this time.
- What was left over afterwards? That is what you overbought.
Step 2: Estimate this year's numbers
Take last year's sales for each spiking product and adjust for what has changed. Is the shop busier overall? Has a competitor opened or closed nearby? Are prices higher?
| Product | Sold last season | Change this year | Estimate | Already in stock | To order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gift wrap rolls | 120 | +10% (busier shop) | 132 | 20 | 112 |
| AA batteries 4 pack | 200 | +10% | 220 | 60 | 160 |
| Party cups 50 pack | 80 | Same | 80 | 15 | 65 |
| Decorative lights | 40 | -25% (ran over last year) | 30 | 12 | 18 |
For products where you ran out last year, add a bit on top, because the real demand was higher than what you sold. For products with lots left over, order less.
Step 3: Order early, in stages
Suppliers get busy before a season too. Lead times stretch and popular items sell out at the wholesaler. Place your first order well before the rush.
First order: around 60 to 70% of your estimate
Enough to cover the start of the season with room to react.
Watch the first week or two
Compare actual sales against your estimate. Fast sellers show themselves quickly.
Top-up order for what is flying
Order more of the products running ahead of plan, while there is still time for the delivery to land.
Stop reordering seasonal lines near the end
Late orders are the ones most likely to be left over.
Step 4: Raise reorder points, then lower them
Your everyday products sell faster in a busy season too. A reorder point that is right for a normal week can be far too low when sales double. Raise minimums on your top sellers a week or two before the rush.
Just as important: lower them again afterwards. Otherwise you keep ordering at holiday rates into a quiet month. See how to set reorder points for the formula.
Step 5: Plan the exit
- Decide a cut-off date after which you discount what is left.
- Discount early and modestly rather than late and deeply.
- Bundle leftovers with everyday items to move them.
- Write down what was left over for next year's plan.
Anything still there months later is dead stock. Read what to do about slow-moving and dead stock.
Cash flow during the build-up
Stocking up means paying for stock weeks before you sell it. Work out how much the seasonal order will cost in total and make sure you can cover it alongside normal bills. If cash is tight, lean on the staged approach: a smaller first order paid for by early-season sales, then a top-up.
How Shopkeepa helps
Shopkeepa keeps your sales history, so next year you can look back at exactly what sold during the season, week by week, and which products ran out. Reports show best sellers and slow movers for any period.
Per-product low-stock minimums are easy to raise before the rush and lower after, and the restock list suggests order quantities as you go. Learn more about low-stock reminders. Shopkeepa is in development, and early access shops will help shape it.
Keep your shop on track with Shopkeepa
Shopkeepa is in development. Join the waitlist for early access and help shape it.
Get early access